[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development | Manifold

[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development

9

Ṁ125Ṁ585

2030

1%

By Jan 1st 2026

9%

By Jan 1st 2027

16%

By Jan 1st 2028

20%

By Jan 1st 2029

24%

By Jan 1st 2030

Resolution Criteria:

This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.

Motivation and Context:

Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development. So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon. Will it ever happen?

Question copied from: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/forecasting-ai-future.html

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