At war includes:
US troops on the ground in Iran
Ongoing strikes by either side
Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, relevant Wikipedia articles, and official government statements.
Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Trump dies in office (e.g. assassination), that counts as leaving office for resolution purposes
If the assassinating party is Iran, this would likely mean the US is at war with Iran at the time of leaving office, resolving Yes
1,000@Eliza Kalshi rules are dumb, if he dies that counts as leaving office.
I think a reasonable interpretation is that if someone (state sanctioned) assassinates or kidnaps your President, you're at war with them at least in the brief window surrounding that incident.
@EvanDaniel Thank you for providing these valuable clarifications. I hope nothing like that happens.