This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT), the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer the governing regime of Iran.
This includes scenarios in which the regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern, and a fundamentally different system replaces it. Qualifying scenarios may include:
Revolution
Civil war
Military coup
Voluntary abdication of power
Establishment of a new constitutional order, provisional government, or revolutionary authority
To qualify, there must be a broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced, and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran.
Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Both conditions must be met for YES resolution:
The core institutions of the Islamic Republic (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control) must be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced AND
The regime must have lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population
Example of NO resolution: A Syrian civil war-style scenario where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country would resolve NO, because the regime institutions remain intact even if territorial control is reduced.
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Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime
Guys regime change seems really hard
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-defense-strategy-khamenei-fe9aeaf9
@SemioticRivalry WSJ article (March 6, 2026) explicitly describes Iran’s post-2025 “high-risk, no-limits” strategy: after the June 2025 12-day war exposed the failures of limited responses, Khamenei’s circle decided on deliberate regional escalation to make the war unbearably costly for everyone (oil at $150+, global supply chains hit). They warned Gulf states privately they would be “first in line” and then executed it — hitting GCC harder and faster than many expected. This was not caving; it was the opposite of restraint.
New development TODAY (March 7): President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly apologized to Gulf neighbors and announced Iran will stop attacking them “unless they were the source of an attack on Iran.” This looks like a partial cave/restraint signal to prevent total regional blowback and buy time, but it came after weeks of aggressive expansion, not before. Iran’s own strategy deliberately hit every GCC state (hotels in Dubai, Burj Al Arab, Saudi Ras Tanura refinery, UAE Jebel Ali/Fujeirah ports, Qatar Ras Laffan LNG, etc.), shattering years of detente. GCC states had repeatedly assured Iran they would not allow U.S./Israeli use of their bases/airspace. In response, they have issued joint condemnations, vowed self-defense (including possible counter-strikes on Iranian launch sites), banded together, and are now coordinating closely with the U.S. GCC-Iran relations are at their worst in decades. UAE and Saudi Arabia describe the attacks as betrayal.
@SemioticRivalry back in the day all you needed was like 3-5 virile British psychopaths and 100k pounds sterling
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2029983602595815672?s=20 Karoline Leavitt says "To obliterate the Iranian regime will be a very good thing for the energy and oil markets and for oil prices across the globe in the long term when you no longer have a terrorist regime that is restricting the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz and to the rest of the world"
Diplomatic calibration. Rubio was reassuring Arab partners who fear a power vacuum or Kurdish civil-war spillover. Trump publicly demanded unconditional surrender. Plan- Permanently destroy Iran’s ability to threaten the region with missiles and drones. Strip the shield of nuclear program (surrender or force to get enriched uranium and inspectors). Create conditions for internal collapse or leadership change. Control the oil for leverage over China. Regime change can unlock natural gas for extra trillions in AI..can't do that without regime change and full puppet gov't . https://x.com/World_Insights1/status/2029779899943375344?s=20
@SemioticRivalry Trump has said that the outcome in Venezuela was a good model, so maybe that's what they mean?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 If they wanted to attempt the outcome from Venezuela, in which their victory was overwhelmingly symbolic, they should have attempted an operation 1% or more similar to what they did in Venezuela.
Before operation uwu furby my credence was at 15%. Now it's closer to 30%. I can see international media saying Iran has "descended into total anarchy" and the market creator resolving Yes, though I still don't think it's likely. As long as there is concerted military output and no clear successor, it's hard to argue that the islamic Republic has fallen, just that they're embattled and busy. Decentralization is not collapse.
@Panfilo i haven't thought too much about the resolution here, but while detailed resolution criteria are nice, there's a real trade-off here bc those details are often in tension.
broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced
that's a very high bar! "core institutions" is very broad.
and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran
potentially a lower bar, covered by many civil war scenarios where the regime is still quite coherent/intact.
FWIW, my interpretation is that the description has always said "and" for these conditions, which makes this straightforward—both must be true, and the higher bar applies. but this is a common setup that causes contention (the creator enumerates a qualifying scenario that occurs, but also includes a condition that the qualifying scenario does not meet)
@Ziddletwix fwiw I copied the description from someone else's 2025 version of this market, but i agree with your reading, and i would resolve NO in a scenario like the syrian civil war where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country
Yesterday they came for the regime, tomorrow it is coming hard for you.
Ring-a-ling-a-ding-dong. Hear it? The red phone ringing. Trump is picking it up, sitting on the John 3:14 am. Firing away, drop the bombs, shoot the missiles!
It is how the US is swinging it these days around. Swing and the drip, swing and the drip. A shaky-shaky-shake. Diplomacy is in the hands.
Many people are thinking if the US can do it no repercussions style today for the regime, maybe tomorrow they can be liberating for us? The poor people of Greenland, Armenia, Monaco, Greece, Albania, Chad, Canadia, Indonesia and the Costa Rica are all praying for the Trump to make the next call to save them from the holes they are the living in and the oppressive governments making it hard to function as the free humans of the global orders.
The regimen cannot be continuing because it is not sustaining to be getting the 7-9 hours of the sleep, nutritious meals and regular exercise. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has proven it for us here today, gone tomorrow. I am predicting the yes.
CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran
Do read the whole piece, not just the headline
@FergusArgyll ITV News reports that weapons have been smuggled into Western Iran since last year to arm thousands of Kurdish volunteers. They’re allegedly planning to start a ground operation within days and have asked the U.S. and Israel for air cover. https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2028947962244571569